It seems that wherever you look in the media these days you see something about driverless cars. News reports, blog posts and podcast think-pieces all agree that cars will soon have no need for a driver. What previously might have seemed like science fiction is now reported as an impending fact. How accurate are these claims really, and should we be concerned?
Are Driverless Cars Everywhere?
The media coverage of self-driving cars is disproportionate to their real world impact. Most people have never seen a driverless car. This is unlikely to change any time soon. The majority of work being done on automatic vehicles is intensely local. Most of the major companies who are experimenting with driverless cars are Silicon Valley based. Apple, Google, Uber & Tesla are all in similar places. This means that while these vehicles might be local news stories in the San Francisco Bay area, they are less relevant almost everywhere else.
Public Doubts
Evidence gathered from the group Consumer Watchdog suggests that a growing number of people are concerned by the potential of driverless cars. 74% of respondents said that they would not choose to ride in a self-driving car. Only 7% of respondents were not concerned by the safety of driverless cars. Only 30% believed self-driving cars would be safe enough to use within their lifetime.
There have been several high profile cases of crashes and even fatalities in driverless cars in recent months. However, these remain statistical outliers. Most evidence gathered about the safety of the software which controls autonomous vehicles suggests that they are safe. The key evidence to interrogate is whether the software does a better job than a human would. Evidence gathered by MIT claims that Computer Vision (which is a major part of control systems in driverless cars) is superior to a human about 90% of the time. A figure of less than 100% is likely behind the public’s reticence to trust self-driving vehicles.
Something for the Future?
Driverless cars are unlikely to appear with any ubiquity soon. Google wants its self-driving cars to be ready by 2018. Elon Musk of Tesla predicts it will take until 2020. Both of these figures are likely to be optimistic. While there are doubts about public safety, scientists will be less able to make progress on true autonomy. For now, humans will still have to keep their hands on the steering wheel.